Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Mitt Romney Wins Michigan Primary

Mitt Romney

By Tony Vega

Wednesday, January 16, 2007


AND Here:

Mitt Romney Michigan’s native son wins the Republican primary on native soil. Not a big deal. A quick look at the numbers reveals Romney wins Michigan at 39% and John McCain takes second with 30%. It appears that John McCain lost to Romney, rather than Mitt Romney winning Michigan, if you can follow that logic. Mitt Romney was supposed to win Michigan. Again, it’s his home state and he’s plugged into that states dynamics, while out spending his closest rivals 3 to 4 times. He skillfully understood that he must zero in on the economic issues of that state, particularly the automobile industry. John McCain seemed to concede and with a wink held the door open for Romney. The main reason this is such a big W for Romney is that if he had lost his home state it would have signaled the end of his candidacy.

In 2000, John McCain was that state’s primary winner beating out George Bush the Texan. A further analysis reveals that if Romney were not from Michigan the more likely winner would have been John McCain. Who is the real winner in Michigan? Time will tell. There’s still a lot of football left and it aint even half time yet folks. Do not forget we are all living in an America lead by the second place winner (or loser) of the 2000 Michigan state primary. During that same time, John McCain also won his home state of Arizona.

More interesting is the leapfrog wins of these republican candidates. We now have three GOP candidates winning the first four states to vote in the 2008 primary season. That’s right I said four. The little talked about state of Wyoming and her 12 delegates went to Romney as well. With two wins to his credit, it would seem Romney could claim front-runner status. However, with Huckabee winning the lead off state of Iowa and McCain winning New Hampshire the GOP has no clear front-runner as the race moves to South Carolina.

Image: John McCain

Huckabee fared better than the other GOP candidates did with a 16% showing in Michigan. The other candidates barely reached double digits. With a GOP race largely considered a race of five candidates, ignoring Ron Paul and Duncan, two members of the core five Thompson and Giuliani came in behind Ron Paul. Thompson and Giuliani seem non-pulsed over losing to the internet sensation Paul. This fares worse for Thompson. After throwing his hat into the ring late and conceding he would not have had a strong showing in Michigan, Thompson seems a little out of breath catching up to the pack. With that said, his candidacy still resonates more legitimately than a Ron Paul candidacy. Giuliani has strategically ignored those first four states and is focusing his energies on the South. He is paying more attention to South Carolina, but his real focus is on Florida.

Thompson needs to win in South Carolina to remain viable. South Carolina is very welcoming to country candidates. That’s a big help for Thompson and Huckabee. Look for those two elbowing there way to the front. South Carolina, however, is not a lock for those two country candidates, especially with these unprecedented GOP wins amongst the varying candidates. It appears chaotic, especially when attempting to put this in a neat package. It is up in the air folks.

South Carolina consists of many military men and women both retired and active. Indicators claim this first southern primary state will focus on immigration followed by support for the Iraq war. McCain’s weak point is on immigration, but his strong suit will be on the military front and his consistency on Iraq. The South Carolina primary is Saturday. That does not leave much time for the McCain camp to get out the message that his immigration policy is a realistic one and on par with the desires of that state. However, McCain will appeal to the national conservative base shaving points from Thompson and Huckabee. It is a new world since the 2000 election and the Pakistani crisis drives this point home. Look for McCain to have a strong showing in South Carolina.

Giuliani will more than likely have his best showing yet, in South Carolina. His 911 mantra will probably resonate well there. However, his coup de tat will be reserved for Florida. That’s if his gamble plays out. Giuliani in essence ignored the first four states (reason why coming behind Ron Paul in Michigan doesn’t matter) and is in Florida campaigning heavily. A Giuliani win in Florida will earn him that state’s rich 57 delegates. That one state win would catapult him to the front, possibly giving him the party‘s coveted nomination. A large contingent of firefighters is endeavoring to make sure this does not happen. Fire fighter groups despise Giuliani after he gave the controversial order to cease recovery efforts shortly after the 911 attacks.

The South will define the GOP race.

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